Scary because it’s all-too-likely

Doonesbury (hat tip to this Freakonomics article)

Dr. George Fishbeck would roll over in his grave!

of course, he might still be alive - he’s an awfully hard-to-track-down guy.

Anyhow, the pertinent point is that I’ve come across another fascinating Freakonomics article; this one dealing with the inconsistency and inaccuracy of weather reports. To be it’s supremely ironic that I stumbled across this a mere day after ranting about a similar problem in the news’ treatment of the course of the stock market.

A lot of it (the article) sort of dovetails with common sense, though it’s so easy to just assume that the newscasters actually know what they’re doing… but then again, that’s exactly my problem with stock reporting; you trust them to know what they’re talking about, and often they don’t have the decency to admit they simply don’t know.

As for Dr. George, well that’s just a blast from my past. I haven’t thought of him in years, until I was trying to come up with a ‘different’ title for this post. I think he will always be my image of a stereotypical weatherman from the ‘good old days’ - back before Dallas Raines (is that really his legal name?) or Christopher Nance or the comic Fritz Coleman. And in trying to look up whatever became of him, I stumbled across this little post which surprised me by informing me that Dr. George is immortalized in a Tom Waits song (I’m guessing Writin Wrong has heard it at some point).

To summarize, I quote from the article:

The takeaway message? Do not plan your weekend activities based on the T.V. weather forecasts unless it is already Thursday — but waiting until Friday would be even better.

Don’t Waste Your Time On The Little Stuff

So Caleb and Quinn were sharing with us what they’ve been learning about the ear yesterday. We are enjoying hearing about what they remember and are prompting Quinn for the vocabulary he remembers. He does a pretty good job, recalling the hammer (I’m guessing his previous familiarity with the word helped) and we hint and cajole to get him to recall anvil and stirrups. These are the ones that immediately come to my mind.

Not to leave out Caleb, though he’s not quite 6, we ask what he learned and he claimed he couldn’t remember any of the words. Only, moments later, he blurts out “…and the semicircular canal!” Guess he couldn’t be bothered with anything as simple as a hammer or anvil.

On a side note, he also quite seriously explained (as he’s working on his phonics) that the end of the word ‘leap’ starts with ‘p’.

The Dow of Money Sense

As a former (small-time) investor and math teacher, I’ve long been frustrated with the news’ approach to reporting ups and downs, highs and lows in the market.  My favorite type of report states that “The Dow was up today on rumors that ____________________.”  Come on!  You’re telling me that the only thing that contributed to this massively complex market today was a single rumor?  No one in their right mind believes that, certainly not whoever wrote the article…  yet they feel compelled to put a reason to the day’s events.  And I really believe a lot of people out there take the report at face value.

What was merely a pet peeve, however, became much more serious after I read this paper by Arthur Lupia, et al. at the University of Michigan (hat tip, once again, to Freakonomics).  I don’t want to steal his thunder too much - you should read for yourself - but suffice it to say that the status quo is really just fostering ignorance and poor investing sense.  I consider myself good with numbers, but this interpretation of events eluded me.  Reading it, however, explains a lot about how an economy can appear so good and perform so badly at the same time; it’s all about where you focus your attention.

Whether or not the media is swayed by the solid suggestions, I’m pretty sure I’ll be able to at least better interpret this kind of financial data in the future.  That’s a start…

More by Prof. Lupia here.

The Illusion of Television

I just got through reading a gushing ‘heads up’ to Lost fans about the upcoming continuation to the season (post Writer’s-strike) and I guess it just really rubbed me the wrong way. I know I shouldn’t really take personally what ultimately are the tastes and/or opinions of others, but I suppose as a reformed ‘Lost’-oholic I just feel like it’s a case of The Emperor’s New Clothes and I don’t like seeing perfectly respectable and intelligent people duped.

Baby Names

Very cool app!  Check it out!

(yeah, yeah, Freakonomics again…  they’re too cool for words!)

To Lead A Gang

I so should have blogged about this sooner, but I just hadn’t had time to watch the video.  This is very interesting and very funny.  (would post it here, but WordPress won’t allow it for this type of video)

I should also point out that I first found the video on the Freakonomics blog and that I first became acquainted with Sudhir Venkatesh due to his pieces on What Do Real Thugs Think of The Wire?

Funny Farm

Came across this puzzle via the Freakonomics blog (as usual), and it’s really quite interesting. It’s basically a word-association puzzle, but it’s designed to use cookies so it will automatically save your game. AND there’s a feature that let’s people share their solutions to collaborate.

Try it out!

If you want to collaborate, let me show you how: click on the ’save game’ button and it will provide you with a link to your saved content. Paste that content into a comment here for us to share our results.

My progress so far (only use it if you want to - you can start on your own by using the link above). My recommendation is to begin it on your own and only use my progress if you’re getting stuck. To add my progress to yours, again click the ’save game’ button and there’s a field where you can paste in somebody else’s progress (just paste in the above link).

Gender and Education

This interesting article brought to light some interesting statistics that I wouldn’t have guessed on my own.  I’m not really sure what to make of it just yet, but I’m hoping that I might at least use the information to encourage my students, especially girls that might not see themselves as capable of going into an engineering-related filed.

Part of the program I work with encourages students to choose a path as they enter their junior year: the Biomed path, or the Engineering path.  Overwhelmingly, the girls tend to prefer Biomed.  That’s not necessarily a problem (before I get flamed for insinuating otherwise) - I just want to make sure all students feel they are capable of either choice.  Last year, for instance, out of about twenty students, only two were girls.

Rabbit-Proof Fence

We finally got around to watching Rabbit-Proof Fence last night - it’s been sitting by the TV for over a week (thankfully, Dais has Netflix so we weren’t in any rush). Though it didn’t strike me as great, I enjoyed it; the actors, for the most part, were little-known (which is refreshing) and did a very good job. The story, based on a true story, is quite fascinating - though I mostly was irritated by the condescension and closed-mindedness of Mr. Neville (played by Kenneth Branagh)… but I suppose that’s the point.

To summarize, over 75 years ago Australia adopted a policy of “caring” for the half-caste (read half-white) children being born to the aborigines. This policy effectively gave the aforementioned Mr. Neville the legal power to remove them from their families and “civilize” them. They were placed in an internment camp with other young half-caste children and it was run quite strictly (in the movie, at least, by nuns). The heart of the movie revolves around a girl’s attempt to return to her home - over 1500 miles away - on foot, with her sister and cousin (the eldest was 14). The rabbit-proof fence of the title is what makes this possible, as it stretches nearly the entire length of the land in an effort to separate the ballooning rabbit population from Australian farmland.

Thinking about my reaction to this movie has reminded me of something M-mv blogged about recently. She said, “I hate writing, I love having written.” Now, in all fairness, she clarified that what she really hates is having to write, but my point is this: I sometimes don’t feel in the mood to watch some movies, but I love having seen them. I guess I’m sort of a cataloger - I want to know it all and see it all, even though perhaps it’s not the most interesting or exciting thing out there.